ARE TANZANIA AND KENYA PLAYING A “YOU SCRATCH MY BACK, I’LL SCRATCH YOURS” GAME?

Adeladius Makwega — Mbagala

Twaha Mwaipaya is a Tanzanian political activist known for his involvement with the Chama cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (CHADEMA), particularly its youth wing, the Baraza la Vijana la CHADEMA (BAVICHA). He has previously served as the National Mobilisation Coordinator of the youth organisation. He is also known for advocating constitutional reforms, leadership accountability and human rights in Tanzania.

According to media reports published on October 26, 2026, Mwaipaya was reported missing in Kenya after allegedly being taken by unknown individuals in the Kamulu area, near Nairobi, on October 25, 2026.

Amnesty International Kenya and other activists have called on the relevant authorities to take urgent action to establish Mwaipaya’s whereabouts and ensure his safety.

Mwanakwetu has received this incident with deep concern and is asking: How is it that abduction cases, which previously appeared to encounter operational difficulties in Kenya, now seem to be succeeding?

This is a difficult question that the Kenyan authorities have a responsibility to address. Mwanakwetu anticipates that the issue could become one of the challenging questions raised in the run-up to Kenya’s 2027 General Election, when Kenyans are expected to elect various leaders, including the President of the Republic of Kenya, members of the National Assembly, senators, county governors, women representatives in Parliament and Members of County Assemblies (MCAs).

Among the prominent Kenyan politicians being discussed in connection with the 2027 political landscape is James Orengo. While in Homa Bay, he was reported to have expressed his intention to contest the Kenyan presidency in 2027 through the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), a party long associated with the late Raila Odinga.

James Orengo is a prominent Kenyan politician, lawyer and human rights advocate. Born in 1951, he has long been known for his commitment to democracy, the rule of law and citizens’ rights. During the 1980s, under President Daniel arap Moi, Orengo was among the politicians who opposed the government and advocated political reforms in Kenya. Because of his political stance, he faced various challenges, including arrest and a period of living outside the country.

Throughout his political career, James Orengo has held several important positions in Kenya. He served as the Member of Parliament for Ugenya, later became the Senator for Siaya County, and also served as Minister for Lands. In addition, he has participated in numerous debates concerning the Constitution, human rights and political reforms in the country. His legal background has enabled him to take part in major constitutional cases and debates. Orengo is regarded as an experienced Kenyan politician, particularly because of his long involvement in the struggle for democracy and political change.

Former Siaya Senator James Orengo is one of the politicians who have had a strained relationship with the Kenyan government for many years, dating back to his time as a university student leader and continuing through the 1980s and 1990s, during the Nyayo era.

In reflecting on the reported disappearance of Twaha Mwaipaya, Mwanakwetu recalls a historical episode involving James Orengo and the government of Mwalimu Julius Nyerere in Tanzania during the 1980s.

In 1982, while serving his first term as the Member of Parliament for Ugenya, James Orengo was forced to leave Kenya after falling out with the government led by Daniel arap Moi.

Orengo abandoned his political activities in Kenya and went abroad during a period of intense political tension. Accounts of his journey indicate that he travelled through Uganda and later lived in Zimbabwe before returning to Tanzania.

This happened after the Kenyan government had confiscated Orengo’s passport, in what appeared to be an attempt to prevent him from travelling abroad.

The Kenyan government became increasingly confused by rumours that Orengo had fled to Libya or Zimbabwe, making it difficult for officials to establish his whereabouts with certainty.

Eventually, Orengo was located in Tanzania. It is alleged that while there, he used the assumed name Aggrey Oduori Kenga, apparently to conceal his identity.

It is reported that he received protection in Tanzania during the administration of President Julius Nyerere, who refused to hand him over to the Kenyan government at the time. Tanzania had also received Kenyan soldiers who fled to the country following the failed military coup attempt of 1982.

However, Orengo and others were returned to Kenya in 1983 under circumstances associated with agreements between the governments of Daniel arap Moi and Julius Nyerere concerning individuals who had fled across their respective borders.

Consequently, the then Kenyan President, Daniel arap Moi, and Tanzanian President Mwalimu Julius Nyerere were associated with arrangements to exchange individuals who had sought refuge in their countries.

The political situation in 1983 was difficult. Through this article, Mwanakwetu seeks to compare that historical period with the situation unfolding in 2026. At the time, Moi and Nyerere faced political and security challenges that required communication and diplomatic decisions between the two countries.

This is where the idea of “you scratch my back, I’ll scratch yours” enters Mwanakwetu’s reflection.

The question being asked today is this: In light of reports that Twaha Mwaipaya has gone missing in Kenya, are President William Ruto and President Samia Suluhu Hassan facing circumstances that could raise questions about security arrangements between the two countries?

Can the history of James Orengo and the arrangements between Moi and Nyerere help us understand the challenges facing the region today?

Mwanakwetu raises these questions but has no evidence to establish that the current governments have entered into any agreement concerning Mwaipaya.

It is therefore important for the relevant authorities to provide clarification, ensure that an investigation is conducted and establish the truth about the activist’s whereabouts.